This Remarkable Rich Vein of Form Fuels Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just 60 days ago when the Villa attacker found himself on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were a sign or the reason for the side's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to restore Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to ten wins in a row and despite not winning any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have stacked up.
According to the data, on just two occasions has the side registered an xG notably superior than their opponents. For a club who have put together 10 in a row, Villa seem strangely fragile – but at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and once more against Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a superb shot, arced right inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal was essentially a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter in the near future. Rogers, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the player he resembled in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, but they surely can continue to depend solely on one man.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner stood in front of the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.